卖空行为的是与非

上一篇 / 下一篇  2007-12-06 00:50:50

It is with no doubts that the concerns about selling short are broad-based. Policy makers are generally suspicious of short sales. Regulators in many nations have enacted various of restrictions on their usages (Bris et al. 2005).

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From investors' points of view, one concern is that the selling short of borrowed shares may disrupt the capital market and, hence, hurt the economy. The reasons are straightforward----stocks sold short create a relative gain when they underperformed the benchmark. Therefore, short-sellers have strong incentives, in some cases to exaggerate negative information about their shorting stocks. Some short sellers may even go so far as to spread false rumors about their shorted stocks, anticipating a free fall of the stock prices (so they can buy back at lower levels to pocket their handsome profits). In extreme cases, collapsing prices become self-fulfilling as other longs are scared to death and throw in towels. The painful drop in prices can seriously hurt investors who are in long positions. As a further result, this can severely harm the companies' abilities to raise new capital and, therefore, slow down their business expansion.

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 中国华尔街博客空间6z ` Jw#i~e

On the other hand, the economic rational behind short sales is compelling. Short sales can improve so-called the efficiency of capital market by facilitating the flow of negative information into the share prices. As a matter of fact, with long and shorting mechanisms in place, the market does give both playing parties equal opportunities to express either long or short views. The even truer fact is:  With restrictions on shorting, stock prices are set mostly by optimists (think about the long list here-----the private equity firms who funded their seed money, the VCs who ever helped the firms in their start-ups, I-Banks who were the underwriters of their IPOs, mutual funds as their core holders, long-term investors, majority of retail investors, CFOs, CEOs, major non-bank shareholders, etc....), which may add the odds that shares prices tend to be overvalued:))). But no matter what, the truth is like this: cold blood short sellers are definitely the enemies of long-term investors on the above list!!!

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Based on what I observe, seems like the market does not go crazy about the moderate shorts, which can facilitate that theoretical "price-discovery" process. (But brutal, evil and sinful short sellers are hated/loathed by the longs in the marketplace. (That is also why longs always try to create some "short squeezing" , which drives short seller nuts and wakes them up in the middle of the nightmares). But who really cares? At the end of a day, with all the up-and-down cycles being smoothed out, the economies have been always moving structurally in the uptrend.  I see China as a 10-20 year structural bull walking down the road..............中国华尔街博客空间V/C6Fcv5|

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Having all these said------trust me, as individual investors, you got to have strong (I mean STRONG) hearts to deal with short selling trades by yourself!!!  If you wanna seek so called  "Alpha", would suggest you rather seek fund mangers to execute the long-short strategies...such as 130/30 strategies (I will come back for this) to outperform. your friends and colleagues...

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TAG: 资本市场

 

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