美国最新劳工市场数据解读

December Employment Situation data released on last Friday were much stronger than what market had expected. As you may or may not know,these data come from two major surveys, namely the Current Employment Statistics (establishment survey) and the Current Population Survey (household survey).中国华尔街博客空间8I'mweR7Ml

The establishment survey provides the information on the employment,hours, and earnings of workers on non-farm payrolls.  This information is collected from payroll records by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) in cooperation with state agencies.  The sample includes about 160,000 businesses and government agencies covering approximately 400,000 individual worksites.  The active sample includes about one-third of all non-farm payroll workers. 

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The household survey provides the information on the labor force, employment, and unemployment. It is a sample survey of about 60,000 households conducted by the U.S. Census Bureau for BLS.中国华尔街博客空间 o{\$x'g1a

Last year, I had a chance to chat with a former Economist who ever worked for BLS. She told me that many U.S. economic statistic data were created from certain types of sampling surveys. Based on her insights, Employment Data are most accurate compared to many others in terms of errors and standard deviations. This feature, coupled with other facts, may partially explain why this single most important statistic set always catches people's eyeballs in the current financial markets.

My key takeaways from last Friday’s release are as follows:中国华尔街博客空间_wbC*B+X Ue7|

• The overall non-farm payroll number increased by 167,000, with upward revisions to both October and November. However, the payroll gains remained divided, with weakness in manufacturing and construction and strength across the broad. 
• Also, labor income detail was very strong; average hourly earnings rose 0.5% in November and aggregate hours worked increased 0.2%, with upward revisions to the prior two months.
• The household survey details were strong as well. Household employment rose by 303,000 in December, the fifth consecutive increase of more than 200,000. In fact, the economy added over one million jobs in the fourth quarter according to this survey, the first time that has happened since the second quarter of 2005. The unemployment rate kept almost the same after rounding------4.5%.
• From the employment situation statistics themslves, I bascially agree what we see are what we get here. Having said that, I have the following comments: 1)the Fed shall continue have reasons to worry about the inflationary pressures from both mounting unit labor costs and high level of resource utilization. It is, therefore, not impossible to see that the Fed might wait longer time to sit on the sideline with no actions on its rate policies. It is also worth mentioning that the employment data are lagging indicators. One of the leading indicator, such as jobless claims, was actually seen to get worsen last week. 2) This payroll report greatly strengthens the case for reduced downside risks to immediate near-term growth, say, the growth in 4^th quarther. However, this really cannot gurantee how the housing market's spillover effects will negatively affect the economy down the road. 3) Given the slower productivity growth and rise of unit labor costs, U.S. corporate profit margins should suffer going forward into 2007.