预计油价将升至200美元

高盛(Goldman Sachs)分析师阿尔琼•穆尔蒂(Arjun Murti)预测，未来两年中，原油价格可能飙升至每桶200美元。穆尔蒂3年前曾准确预测到油价将出现“超级涨升”，升至每桶100美元以上。中国华尔街博客空间 Um'm8q[s2R

\p ~*kr0Crude oil prices could surge to $200 a barrel in the next two years, according to the Goldman Sachs’ analyst who three years ago correctly predicted a price “super-spike” above $100 a barrel.中国华尔街博客空间NL2^'qA9oim

穆尔蒂发出上述警告之际，油价创下了每桶122美元以上的新高。推高油价的因素包括尼日利亚供应中断、俄罗斯产量下降以及在奥运之前中国需求持续强劲。中国华尔街博客空间U[[%vds-k

The warning by Arjun Murti came as oil prices hit a fresh record high above $122 a barrel, boosted by supply disruptions in Nigeria, lower output in Russia and continued robust demand in China ahead of the Olympics. 中国华尔街博客空间 J~0e3J6r dJ,~

j;E2YCO0穆尔蒂表示，鉴于供应增长不足已十分明显，可能爆发能源危机。中国华尔街博客空间(xRfHZ_@

Mr Murti said the energy crisis could be coming to a head as a lack of adequate supply growth was becoming apparent.

.x(\ cZ/g'm~-m0ly0他补充称：“在未来6至24个月中，油价升至每桶150美元至200美元的可能性似乎越来越大。”他同时警告，石油输出国组织(OPEC，简称：欧佩克)用于缓冲意外供应问题的闲置产能很低。

“The possibility of $150-$200 per barrel seems increasingly likely over the next 6-24 months,” he added, warning also that the spare capacity of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries to cushion against unexpected supply shocks was very low.

:Vq:Xu$[$Tn0上月，欧佩克主席沙基卜•克利勒(Chakib Khelil)也警告称，油价可能升至每桶200美元。自今年初以来，押注油价在12月份触及每桶200美元的原油期权合约增长了两倍。中国华尔街博客空间h&K1h4j-hg-p

Last month, Chakib Khelil, president of Opec, also warned oil could reach $200 a barrel. The number of oil option contracts betting on oil hitting $200 a barrel in December have tripled since the beginning of the year.

IW$fG6` U2j$L_0自2005年3月作出准确的预测后，穆尔蒂的警告在石油市场中变得举足轻重。当时油价为每桶55美元左右，而他警告称油价将出现“超级涨升”至每桶105美元。中国华尔街博客空间5g2K!Fk'z!]

Mr Murti’s warnings carry weight in the oil market, after he correctly predicted in March 2005, when oil traded at about $55 a barrel, that prices could suffer a “super-spike” to $105 a barrel. 中国华尔街博客空间6q5G*e^%]D;u0B

外界批评他2005年发出的警告是“自私自利”，因为高盛是从事石油交易的大型华尔街投资银行之一，能够从油价上涨中获利。

The warning in 2005 was criticised as “self-serving” because Goldman Sachs is one of the largest Wall Street investment banks trading oil and it could profit from an increase in prices.

这些批评促使高盛时任首席执行官亨利•保尔森(Henry Paulson)为这份看涨报告出言辩护。目前保尔森担任美国财政部长。

pVp,d7d2|r8i0The criticism forced the bank’s chief executive at that time – Henry Paulson – to defend the bullish report. Mr Paulson is now US Treasury secretary.

E&hs/Ay_0麦格理(Macquarie)驻纽约的诺曼•巴拉卡特(Nauman Barakat)表示：“不应立刻就说这份报告是荒谬的，因为高盛当初的“超级涨升”说法一点没错。”

Nauman Barakat of Macquarie in New York said: “The report should not be dismissed out of hand as preposterous, as Goldman hit it on the head with its original super-spike story.”