对冲基金的“屯地”思维

~ZCV)q"?sbm0一家对冲基金想出了一个极具创意的方法，以利用美国房地产市场大跌的机遇。加州是此次受打击最重的地区之一，而该基金在此买入了大量被放弃的开发用地。中国华尔街博客空间'w3Ft2\b#^5? \

A hedge fund has come up with an innovative way of capitalising on the US housing market crash, buying tracts of abandoned development land in California, one of the states hardest hit by the downturn.中国华尔街博客空间 pF~ J3](D

Three Arch Investors旗下“加州问题土地基金”(California Distressed Land Fund)的基金经理戴维•米切尔森(David Michelson)表示，房价在过去一年中下跌了将近20%，而土地价格的跌幅近80%。

j&@#C^8T0While house prices have fallen by a little under 20 per cent over the past year, land prices have slumped by almost 80 per cent, according to David Michelson of Three Arch Investors, manager of the California Distressed Land Fund.

“加州地产和土地价值已经下跌到非常低的水平，到某一阶段将会回升。”中国华尔街博客空间TtLjs

0J7Dg.qs5f0"Property and land values in California have dropped to very low lows and at some stage they will recover.中国华尔街博客空间~0gj{kH7V

伦敦IGS Group的管理合伙人约翰•戈登(John Godden)解释道：“这是抓住所有人预期的终极方法。”IGS Group是该基金的推广商。

"This is the ultimate way to play what everyone knows to be the situation," explained John Godden, managing partner of London-based IGS Group, promoter of the fund.

该基金的融资目标是1.5亿至2.5亿美元，在商业地产基金或住宅地产指数衍生品之外，为那些希望从地产行业复苏中获利的投资者提供了另一种投资选择。

The fund, which has a target size of $150m to $250m, provides an alternative to commercial property funds or residential property index derivatives for those seeking to benefit from any upswing in the property sector.中国华尔街博客空间A!Yrr+mc*{q

,FA6z.ZF9[M0米切尔森在开发和管理住宅地产项目方面有25年的工作经验。他表示，由于开发商无力偿还贷款，加州很多土地目前都在银行手中。

Mr Michelson, who has been developing and managing residential projects for 25 years, said much of the Californian property land bank was now in the hands of banks after developers defaulted on their loans.

)ds$]T7RC0“银行并不想要这些东西，他们很想脱手，”他表示。中国华尔街博客空间 G6V
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1Z2Rx S3V/v`
P0"The banks do not want this stuff, they want to get rid of it," he said.

不过，他看好加州房地产市场的中期前景，尤其是因为该州地产项目的完工率已经从2005年的160万套，降至过去12个月的50万套。中国华尔街博客空间*Zt!v9g9bPU+jl1p.K

Yet, he believed the medium-term dynamics of the state's housing market were robust, particularly with completion rates having slumped from 1.6m in 2005 to 500,000 in the past 12 months.中国华尔街博客空间+M9K/t MHL

;s6jv+L*v P0“如果需求恢复正常，用不了11个月，目前的库存就会消化掉。”中国华尔街博客空间?OKJ,p

"It won't take more than 11 months for the current inventories to be wiped out if we get back to conventional demand.

他表示：“这是一个简单的供需关系。供给减少了三分之二，而我们知道，需求将会复苏。”他的眼光放在所谓的“经济潮一代”(eco-boomers)身上——作为“婴儿潮一代”(baby boomers)的子女，他们现在处于22至25岁年龄段，正在组建家庭。

"It's really a simple supply and demand game. Supply is down two-thirds and we know demand is going to be there," he said, eyeing the so-called "eco-boomers", the 22 to 25-year-old offspring of the baby boomers who are now forming households.中国华尔街博客空间"pdBkZtH(F

*V~5H i$D0“市场状况在16年来首次出现这种巧合。”

6k}0C g;xV+F0"Market conditions have not been this opportune for 16 years."

XuI a)rB0该基金计划在12至15个月内完成资本配置，可能会在2014至2018年间偿还本金——届时，他们在这些土地上开发的地产将上市销售。

&`a?A9O0The fund aims to have deployed its capital within 12-15 months, with the principal likely to be repaid between 2014 and 2018 when the properties developed on the land are sold.

&r9wXW@y+B+o0基金管理费率为1%，如果收益率超过7%，还将收取20%的附带收益。该基金的预期收益率在15%左右。

}$]:Am `J0Fees are 1 per cent with 20 per cent carried interest, subject to a 7 per cent hurdle. The fund is targeting mid-teen returns.