欧元区滞胀忧虑抬头

昨日的数据显示，欧元区私人部门本月产出出现萎缩，为5年来首次，该地区进一步滑向滞胀——即增长较低而通胀持续上升的局面。中国华尔街博客空间hW*bEQ1Cd.@

f-y"B4Rk*e/j0The eurozone yesterday slid closer to stagflation – low growth combined with rising inflation – as private sector output contracted this month for the first time in five years.

疲弱的经济数据表明，不断飙升的油价6月份已对经济增长构成冲击，但尚不足以阻止欧洲央行(ECB)在下周加息，欧洲央行计划将主要利率上调25个基点至4.25%。中国华尔街博客空间j |2X*R&`9j

Weak economic data indicated soaring oil prices had hit growth in June, but not enough to stop the European Central Bank going ahead next week with a planned quarter percentage point rise to 4.25 per cent in its main interest rate.

7V5po.teG3k0欧元区6月份采购经理人指数(PMI)从5月份的51.1降至49.5，这是自2003年7月以来经济活动首次出现萎缩。分析师指出，这个由15个成员国组成的地区出现经济衰退的可能性有所上升。这与年初时的强劲增长形成了鲜明对比。

The eurozone purchasing managers’ index dropped from 51.1 in May to 49.5 in June, the first contraction in activity since July 2003. The risk of a recession in the 15-country region had increased, analysts said. That contrasted with the robust growth seen at the start of the year.

同一调查还显示，通胀压力持续上升——尤其是在服务业，价格以逾7年来最快速度上升。这将引起欧洲央行的警惕。欧元区5月份的通胀年率跃升至3.7%，为16年来最高水平，而且未来数月可能升至4%的高位。中国华尔街博客空间6|h'a4V | q@#~s;Q/rK3Y

R ^1lPP!E2B0But the same survey also showed inflationary pressures mounting – especially in the service sector, where prices rose at the fastest rate for more than seven years. That will alarm the ECB, which saw the annual eurozone inflation rate leap to 3.7 per cent in May, the highest for 16 years, and is braced for a rise as high as 4 per cent in coming months.中国华尔街博客空间J$Gv4a {

雷曼兄弟Lehman Brothers)分析师迈克尔•休姆(Michael Hume)表示：“欧洲央行7月份的加息举措将与滞胀的感觉相符。”中国华尔街博客空间/J[RE,[

A0kL*nJ(oH0“The ECB hiking [interest rates] in July would be consistent with a stagflationary feel,” said Michael Hume at Lehman Brothers.中国华尔街博客空间y4l$v;ssAz

欧洲央行还对工资持续上涨感到担忧。该机构的目标是将年通胀率维持在“低于但接近”2%的水平。截止目前为止，它尚未发出任何可能在7月份之后调整利率的信号。但PMI指数的表现，将削弱央行内部主张进一步紧缩货币政策人士的影响力。该指数被视作衡量经济走势的良好指标。

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Zmtel7a ?0The ECB is also concerned about rising wage bills. It aims to keep annual inflation “below but close” to 2 per cent. So far it has not given any signals about interest rate changes beyond July. But the purchasing managers’ indices – seen as good guides to economic trends – will weaken the hand of those at the central bank arguing for further monetary policy tightening.

&[@^{H^&NP0美国银行(Bank of America)分析师霍格尔•施米丁(Holger Schmieding)表示，欧元区官方借贷成本上升的前景可能已打击了市场人气。他表示：“欧央行最终很可能要为经济急剧放缓承担大部分责任，目前经济已有放缓之势。”

The prospect of higher official eurozone borrowing costs could already have hit sentiment, Holger Schmieding at Bank of America said. “The ECB could well end up getting much of the blame for the sharp economic slowdown, which is now in the pipeline,” he said.

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yW(}b;L1o ed0由Markit和苏格兰皇家银行(Royal Bank of Scotland)编制的PMI指数同时显示，德国经济也出现了放缓，但尚未急剧下滑。德国PMI为53.7，处于3个月低位。

The purchasing managers’ indices, compiled by Markit and the Royal Bank of Scotland, showed a slowdown also under way in Germany – which has powered eurozone growth recently – but not yet a dramatic decline. The German index was at a three-month low of 53.7.