琢磨不透的中石化股价

EH:ES*{nR0为人民服务，还是为股东服务？当中国汽车司机往油箱里加满补贴汽油时，投资者只能望而哭泣。里昂证券(CLSA)估计，作为中国三大油气公司之一和亚洲最大炼油商，中国石化(Sinopec)每精炼一桶原油，就会亏损19美元——这还是在计入交叉补贴和最近汽油价格上调之后。

Serving the people or its shareholders? While China’s drivers fill their tanks on subsidised gas, investors can only watch and weep. Sinopec, part of China’s triumvirate of oil and gas companies and Asia’s biggest refiner, loses $19 on every barrel of oil it refines, according to brokerage CLSA – and that is after cross-subsidies and recent increases in gasoline prices.中国华尔街博客空间'fx'ALp#\u9L

由于这项炼油业务，中国石化上半年营运利润下降86%，至略高于10亿美元。但令人惊讶的是，投资者似乎对此颇为满意。自7月初以来，中国石化股价已上涨12%，表现优于境外上市中国股票指数和全球同类能源股。原因何在？中国华尔街博客空间r6p9Rr@i&S?

3C,h0^s-F*[8aP)F0Sinopec’s operating profit fell by 86 per cent to slightly more than $1bn in the first half, thanks to that refining business. Yet, surprisingly, investors seem to feel chirpy. Sinopec’s share price has risen by 12 per cent since the beginning of July, outstripping both the broader index of internationally listed Chinese shares and global energy peers. Why?

这不是因为中国石化的业务状况发生了改变。销售量在上升——国际能源机构(IEA)预计，中国今年的石油产品需求将增长近6%。但成本也在上升。石油产品价格仍高于中国驾车者在加油站支付的每升80美分。中国石化自身也预计第三季度业绩依然会很糟糕。此外，中国石化还有自己的计划。今年上半年，中国石化的资本支出上升近20%，而该公司还考虑在海外进行两项规模达数十亿美元的收购。中国华尔街博客空间ZR}*zV"gAd

It is not because Sinopec’s business story has changed. Sales are rising – Chinese demand for oil products is forecast by the International Energy Agency to increase by almost 6 per cent this year. But so too are costs. Oil product prices remain above the 80 cents per litre Chinese motorists pay at the pump. Sinopec itself is guiding for another miserable quarter. In addition, there are Sinopec’s own plans. Capital expenditure rose by nearly a fifth in the first half and the company is eyeing two multi-billion dollar acquisitions overseas.

8I&x*JBk0未知因素是政府。国家可通过交叉补贴或提高零售价格来减轻中国石化的负担。这些补贴在上半年达到约50亿美元，而汽油价格在6月份上调约18%。有关进一步提高补贴或提价的猜测在中国萦绕不去，但人们仍有可能失望。经济增长的放缓，将削弱中国政府大胆提高零售价格的胃口。与此同时，中国石化目前的股价是明年预期收益的17倍，为同类股票的两倍。正如美国司机为减少汽油消耗而抛弃了SUV一样，中国石化的投资者也应考虑转向更有前途的投资工具。中国华尔街博客空间rm/qe_h7T;s

y,j%fF/G6Z0The wild card is government. The state can lessen Sinopec’s load through cross-subsidies or by lifting retail prices. These subsidies came to about $5bn during the first half, while gasoline prices rose by about 18 per cent in June. Speculation about further increases is swirling through China, but there is room for disappointment. The slowing economy will temper Beijing’s appetite for bold retail price hikes. Meanwhile Sinopec trades on 17 times next year’s earnings, twice the rating of peers. Just as American drivers spurn SUVs for more gas-efficient transport, so too should Sinopec investors consider switching to more promising vehicles.